Establishing a Viable Workspace¶
In [2]:
# mounting my google drive
from google.colab import drive
drive.mount('/content/drive')
# changing the directory to my folder designated for this project
%cd /content/drive/My Drive/TU/SEMESTERS/f2022/data_final_proj
In [3]:
# importing important packages I will need
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pandas as pd
!pip install geopandas
import geopandas as gpd
import numpy as np
import requests
import seaborn as sns
from sklearn.feature_extraction import DictVectorizer
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsRegressor
from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline
from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_score
Determine whether the driver or the constructor plays a larger role in Formula One success
- I will utilize a regression discontinuity framework to identify the effect that switching teams had to a driver's average lap time, pitstop time and fastest speed for a given year. If the driver switches to a 'better' team, it is expected that average lap time and pitstop time will decrease and average fastest speed will increase.
Build a regression model that will predict how a driver's average finishing position will be affected if they switch teams between seasons.
- I will utilize historical data on the current 10 Formula One teams to build a regression model that will predict how a driver's average finishing position for a will be affected if they switch teams. I will consider the following variables when building my model: lap times, pitstop times, average starting position, average finishing position, fastest lap speed and constructor reference information.
My motivations: F1 is one of the few sports that is almost completely reliant on data. Telemetry from the cars to the pits has been seen in races since the 1980s however, F1 data usage has greatly expanded since then. Dependent on the team, cars can be fitted with upwards of 300 sensors that generate over one million data points per second. Teams are limited in the number of employees that can be present on race day and thus, teams are utilizing the mass collection of data in real time and transmitting said data to analysts and data engineers at an off-site location for immediate feedback. Drivers are able to not only rely on their gut instinct and years of training, but now they can also rely on models and predictions in real time to make difficult decisions. This is why I would consider F1 analytics to be important. It is interesting to me because F1 has been rapidly expanding into the USA recently with social media promotions and deals with Netflix US and their kind of analytics would constitute my dream job and is ultimately why I decided to pursue this as my milestone topic.
Further Reading about Data in Formula One:
DATA: DESCRIPTIONS, LOADING, SCRAPING, & CLEANING¶
- circuits.csv : This dataset provides pertinent information about the different circuits within Formula One. A circuit is a track where a Formula One race occurs. Within this dataset the revelevant variables are: circuitId, circuitRef, location (city), location (country, latitude, longitude, and altitude.
- constructor_results.csv : Within Formula One, a constructor is the company or manufacturer that is responsible for the design, development, and construction of a team's car. This dataset summarizes how each constructor did at each race and how many points they received. Within this dataset, the revelant variables are: constructorResultId, raceId, constructorId, & points.
- constructor_standings.csv : This dataset highlights how each constructor did at specific races as well as the points their team received for said standings. This dataset is unique from constructors_results as it also includes information about a constructor did for the entire season.
- constructors.csv : This dataset gives information on the different constructors within Formula One, their specific ID, and nationality. The following variables are relevant: constructorId, constructorRef, & nationality.
driver_standings.csv : This dataset illustrates the outcomes of each race. It shows how each driver did at specific races and how many points were awarded. The following variables are pertinent to our analysis: raceId, driverId, points, position, & wins (number of wins so far in the season).
drivers.csv : This dataset gives detailed information on all Formula One drivers for the past 70+ years. Within this dataset, there is information on nationality as well as age. The following variables were important in our analysis: driverId, forename, surname & nationality.
lap_times.csv : This dataset details each driver and how they performed each lap of every race. Each row signifies how a specific driver performed for each lap. We are given position after completing the lap as well as the time of lap. The following variables were used throughout my analysis: raceId, driverId, lap, milliseconds (time of lap in milliseconds), & position (driver position after lap).
pit_stops.csv : This dataset provides information about all pitstops within the races. The pitstop dataset provides detailed information on stop length, what lap the stop occurred, and which driver was stopping. The following variables were pertinent to our analysis: raceId, driverId, stop (for a specific driver at a specific race, which stop was this), lap number (lap when the stop occurred), & milliseconds (time of the pitstop in milliseconds).
- qualifying.csv : To determine grid placement on race day, drivers compete in qualifying rounds on Saturday. This dataset details how each driver did at qualifiers, the overall time for each lap, and the placement earned for Sunday's race. The following variables were pertinent and used in my analysis: raceId, driverId, constructorId, position (where the driver would start based on their qualifying times), q1, q2, q3. More information about how qualifiers work in F1 can be found later in the analysis.
- races.csv : This dataset gives specific IDs to each race within Formula One between 1950-2022. The dataset has information on the circuit, what date the race was on, and even what time the race began. The following variables are pertinent: raceId, year, circuitId, & name (of the circuit). There was also information about day and time of the race, qualifying rounds and sprint races, however, none of this data was used in my analysis.
- results.csv : This dataset summarizes pertinent information regarding the results of each Formula One race. Within the dataset, we can see where each driver started, where they finished and their fastest lap time. Some of the pertinent variables are: raceId, driverId, constructorId, grid (position when starting), position (position when finished), points, laps (the number of races in said race), time in milliseconds, fastestLap, fastestLapTime, fastestLapSpeed, & status of race.
- seasons.csv : This dataset provides a quick Wikipedia link for pertinent information on each Formula One Season.
- sprint_results.csv : Sprint races are new to Formula One. They are not offered at every race but typically only at 'big' races. Only 1/3 the time of a normal race, the drivers compete in a 'mock race' to earn more points for their team and learn the track. This dataset captures important timing and placing metrics for the recent sprint races.
- status.csv : This is a foreign key table that provides text explanations for the different race statuses.
In [4]:
# reading each of the datasets into a dataframe
circuits = pd.read_csv("/content/drive/MyDrive/TU/SEMESTERS/f2022/data_final_proj/circuits.csv")
constructor_results = pd.read_csv("/content/drive/MyDrive/TU/SEMESTERS/f2022/data_final_proj/constructor_results.csv")
constructor_standings= pd.read_csv("/content/drive/MyDrive/TU/SEMESTERS/f2022/data_final_proj/constructor_standings.csv")
constructors = pd.read_csv("/content/drive/MyDrive/TU/SEMESTERS/f2022/data_final_proj/constructors.csv")
driver_standings = pd.read_csv("/content/drive/MyDrive/TU/SEMESTERS/f2022/data_final_proj/driver_standings.csv")
drivers = pd.read_csv("/content/drive/MyDrive/TU/SEMESTERS/f2022/data_final_proj/drivers.csv")
lap_times = pd.read_csv("/content/drive/MyDrive/TU/SEMESTERS/f2022/data_final_proj/lap_times.csv")
pit_stops = pd.read_csv("/content/drive/MyDrive/TU/SEMESTERS/f2022/data_final_proj/pit_stops.csv")
qualifying = pd.read_csv("/content/drive/MyDrive/TU/SEMESTERS/f2022/data_final_proj/qualifying.csv")
races = pd.read_csv("/content/drive/MyDrive/TU/SEMESTERS/f2022/data_final_proj/races.csv")
results = pd.read_csv("/content/drive/MyDrive/TU/SEMESTERS/f2022/data_final_proj/results.csv")
seasons = pd.read_csv("/content/drive/MyDrive/TU/SEMESTERS/f2022/data_final_proj/seasons.csv")
sprint_results = pd.read_csv("/content/drive/MyDrive/TU/SEMESTERS/f2022/data_final_proj/sprint_results.csv")
status = pd.read_csv("/content/drive/MyDrive/TU/SEMESTERS/f2022/data_final_proj/status.csv")
Data Set Citations
- I found all of these datasets on Kaggle. The user who posted these datasets cleaned the data and compiled each table from http://ergast.com/mrd/
Within Formula One's 72 year history, there have been over 171 constructors. In order to accuratly make predictions based on the current Formula One Constructors, I scraped the wikipedia pages of the ten constructors who raced in 2022. I was able gather historical information on drivers for these 10 teams. Later in this project, I concactonated the data from these teams and I was able to see driver switches over time. The web scraping I did acted as a foreign key to all the Kaggle data frames, once it was in place, I could down select any of the Kaggle dataframes to only include information on current drivers.¶
In [5]:
## Red Bull Racing: Drivers by Year
url = 'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Bull_Racing'
headers = {'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_10_1) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/39.0.2171.95 Safari/537.36'}
r = requests.get(url, headers=headers)
# importing the ability to use beautiful soup
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup
soup = BeautifulSoup( r.content )
red_bull_drivers = []
for t in soup.findAll("table"):
df_t = pd.read_html(str(t))
red_bull_drivers.append(df_t[0])
red_bull_drivers[3] = red_bull_drivers[3].drop(columns = ['Car', 'Engine', 'Tyres', 'No.', 'Points', 'Position', 'Name'])
red_bull_drivers[3] = red_bull_drivers[3].join(red_bull_drivers[3]['Drivers'].str.split( expand =True).rename(
columns = {0: 'First1', 1: 'Last1', 2:'First2', 3:'Last2', 4:'First3', 5:'Last3'}
))
red_bull_drivers[3]['Driver1'] = red_bull_drivers[3]['First1'] + ' ' + red_bull_drivers[3]['Last1']
red_bull_drivers[3]['Driver2'] = red_bull_drivers[3]['First2'] + ' ' + red_bull_drivers[3]['Last2']
red_bull_drivers[3]['Driver3'] = red_bull_drivers[3]['First3'] + ' ' + red_bull_drivers[3]['Last3']
red_bull_drivers[3] = red_bull_drivers[3].drop(columns = ['Drivers', 'First1', 'Last1', 'First2', 'Last2', 'First3', 'Last3'])
red_bull_drivers[3].drop([18], axis=0, inplace=True)
red_bull_drivers[3] = pd.melt(red_bull_drivers[3], id_vars=['Year'])
red_bull_drivers[3] = red_bull_drivers[3].dropna()
red_bull_drivers[3]['Constructor'] = 'Red Bull'
red_bull_drivers[3] = red_bull_drivers[3].rename(columns={"value": "Driver"})
red_bull_drivers[3] = red_bull_drivers[3].drop(columns = ['variable'])
red_bull_drivers[3]['constructorId'] = '9'
red_bull_drivers[3]
Out[5]:
In [6]:
## Merecedes: Drivers by Year
url = 'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercedes-Benz_in_Formula_One'
headers = {'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_10_1) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/39.0.2171.95 Safari/537.36'}
r = requests.get(url, headers=headers)
# importing the ability to use beautiful soup
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup
soup = BeautifulSoup( r.content )
mercedes_drivers = []
for t in soup.findAll("table"):
df_t = pd.read_html(str(t))
mercedes_drivers.append(df_t[0])
mercedes_drivers[5].drop([2], axis =0, inplace =True)
mercedes_drivers[5] = mercedes_drivers[5][['Year', 'Drivers']]
# Please note that Mercredes raced drivers in 1954 and 1955 before taking a hiatus uintil 2010.
# For the purposes of my analysis on the current Mercedes team, I did not include 1954 - 1955 as the rules were different and there were many more drivers
mercedes_drivers[5].drop([0], axis =0, inplace =True)
mercedes_drivers[5].drop([1], axis =0, inplace =True)
mercedes_drivers[5].drop([16], axis =0, inplace =True)
mercedes_drivers[5] = mercedes_drivers[5].join(mercedes_drivers[5]['Drivers'].str.split( expand =True).rename(
columns = {0: 'First1', 1: 'Last1', 2:'First2', 3:'Last2', 4:'First3', 5:'Last3'}))
mercedes_drivers[5]['Driver1'] = mercedes_drivers[5]['First1'] + ' ' + mercedes_drivers[5]['Last1']
mercedes_drivers[5]['Driver2'] = mercedes_drivers[5]['First2'] + ' ' + mercedes_drivers[5]['Last2']
mercedes_drivers[5]['Driver3'] = mercedes_drivers[5]['First3'] + ' ' + mercedes_drivers[5]['Last3']
mercedes_drivers[5] = mercedes_drivers[5][['Year', 'Driver1', 'Driver2', 'Driver3']]
mercedes_drivers[5] = pd.melt(mercedes_drivers[5], id_vars=['Year'])
mercedes_drivers[5] = mercedes_drivers[5].dropna()
mercedes_drivers[5]['Constructor'] = 'Mercedes'
mercedes_drivers[5] = mercedes_drivers[5].rename(columns={"value": "Driver"})
mercedes_drivers[5] = mercedes_drivers[5].drop(columns= ['variable'])
mercedes_drivers[5]['constructorId'] = '131'
mercedes_drivers[5]
Out[6]:
In [7]:
#Ferrari
url = 'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferrari_Grand_Prix_results'
headers = {'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_10_1) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/39.0.2171.95 Safari/537.36'}
r = requests.get(url, headers=headers)
# importing the ability to use beautiful soup
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup
soup = BeautifulSoup( r.content )
ferrari_drivers = []
for t in soup.findAll("table"):
df_t = pd.read_html(str(t))
ferrari_drivers.append(df_t[0])
ferrari_drivers= pd.concat([ferrari_drivers[6], ferrari_drivers[7]], ignore_index=True)
ferrari_drivers = ferrari_drivers[['Year', 'Driver']]
ferrari_drivers = ferrari_drivers.dropna()
ferrari_drivers.drop([30], axis =0, inplace =True)
ferrari_drivers.drop([40], axis =0, inplace =True)
# Adding constructor name
ferrari_drivers['Constructor'] = 'Ferrari'
ferrari_drivers['constructorId'] = '6'
ferrari_drivers
Out[7]:
In [8]:
# Mclaren
url = 'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McLaren_Grand_Prix_results'
headers = {'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_10_1) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/39.0.2171.95 Safari/537.36'}
r = requests.get(url, headers=headers)
# importing the ability to use beautiful soup
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup
soup = BeautifulSoup( r.content )
mclaren_drivers = []
for t in soup.findAll("table"):
df_t = pd.read_html(str(t))
mclaren_drivers.append(df_t[0])
mclaren_drivers = pd.concat([mclaren_drivers[5], mclaren_drivers[6]], ignore_index=True)
mclaren_drivers = mclaren_drivers[['Year', 'Drivers']]
mclaren_drivers = mclaren_drivers.dropna()
mclaren_drivers.drop([33], axis =0, inplace =True)
mclaren_drivers.drop([43], axis =0, inplace =True)
# Adding constructor name
mclaren_drivers['Constructor'] = 'McLaren'
mclaren_drivers = mclaren_drivers.rename(columns={"Drivers": "Driver"})
mclaren_drivers['constructorId'] = '1'
mclaren_drivers
Out[8]:
In [9]:
# BWT Alpine
url = 'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpine_F1_Team'
headers = {'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_10_1) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/39.0.2171.95 Safari/537.36'}
r = requests.get(url, headers=headers)
# importing the ability to use beautiful soup
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup
soup = BeautifulSoup( r.content )
alpine_drivers = []
for t in soup.findAll("table"):
df_t = pd.read_html(str(t))
alpine_drivers.append(df_t[0])
alpine_drivers[1] = alpine_drivers[1][['Year', 'Drivers']]
alpine_drivers[1] = alpine_drivers[1].dropna()
alpine_drivers[1].drop([6], axis =0, inplace =True)
alpine_drivers[1]['Constructor'] = 'Alpine F1 Team'
alpine_drivers[1]['constructorId'] = '214'
alpine_drivers[1] = alpine_drivers[1].rename(columns={"Drivers": "Driver"})
alpine_drivers[1]
Out[9]:
In [10]:
# Alpha Tauri
url = 'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scuderia_AlphaTauri'
headers = {'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_10_1) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/39.0.2171.95 Safari/537.36'}
r = requests.get(url, headers=headers)
# importing the ability to use beautiful soup
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup
soup = BeautifulSoup( r.content )
alpha_drivers = []
for t in soup.findAll("table"):
df_t = pd.read_html(str(t))
alpha_drivers.append(df_t[0])
alpha_drivers[1] = alpha_drivers[1][['Year', 'Drivers']]
alpha_drivers[1] = alpha_drivers[1].dropna()
alpha_drivers[1].drop([9], axis =0, inplace =True)
alpha_drivers[1]['Constructor'] = 'AlphaTauri'
alpha_drivers[1]['constructorId'] = '213'
alpha_drivers[1] = alpha_drivers[1].rename(columns={"Drivers": "Driver"})
alpha_drivers[1]
Out[10]:
In [11]:
# Aston Martin
# Please note that Aston Martin also raced in 1959 - 1960, but I will not be including them in this analysis
url = 'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aston_Martin_in_Formula_One'
headers = {'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_10_1) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/39.0.2171.95 Safari/537.36'}
r = requests.get(url, headers=headers)
# importing the ability to use beautiful soup
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup
soup = BeautifulSoup( r.content )
aston_drivers = []
for t in soup.findAll("table"):
df_t = pd.read_html(str(t))
aston_drivers.append(df_t[0])
aston_drivers[3] = aston_drivers[3][['Year', 'Driver']]
aston_drivers[3] = aston_drivers[3].dropna()
aston_drivers[3].drop([7], axis =0, inplace =True)
aston_drivers[3]['Constructor'] = 'Aston Martin'
aston_drivers[3]['constructorId'] = '117'
aston_drivers[3]
Out[11]:
In [12]:
# Alfa Romeo
# Please note Alfa Romeo has raced in 1950-1951, 1979-1985, and 2019-2022 but for this project I will only include the third set of dates
url = 'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfa_Romeo_in_Formula_One'
headers = {'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_10_1) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/39.0.2171.95 Safari/537.36'}
r = requests.get(url, headers=headers)
# importing the ability to use beautiful soup
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup
soup = BeautifulSoup( r.content )
alfa_drivers = []
for t in soup.findAll("table"):
df_t = pd.read_html(str(t))
alfa_drivers.append(df_t[0])
alfa_drivers[2] = alfa_drivers[2][['Year', 'Drivers']]
alfa_drivers[2] = alfa_drivers[2].dropna()
alfa_drivers[2].drop([2], axis =0, inplace =True)
alfa_drivers[2].drop([10], axis =0, inplace =True)
alfa_drivers[2].drop([15], axis =0, inplace =True)
alfa_drivers[2].drop(alfa_drivers[2].loc[0:9].index, axis =0, inplace =True)
alfa_drivers[2] = alfa_drivers[2].join(alfa_drivers[2]['Drivers'].str.split( expand =True).rename(
columns = {0: 'First1', 1: 'Last1', 2:'First2', 3:'Last2', 4:'First3', 5:'Last3'}))
alfa_drivers[2]['Driver1'] = alfa_drivers[2]['First1'] + ' ' + alfa_drivers[2]['Last1']
alfa_drivers[2]['Driver2'] = alfa_drivers[2]['First2'] + ' ' + alfa_drivers[2]['Last2']
alfa_drivers[2]['Driver3'] = alfa_drivers[2]['First3'] + ' ' + alfa_drivers[2]['Last3']
alfa_drivers[2] = alfa_drivers[2][['Year', 'Driver1', 'Driver2', 'Driver3']]
alfa_drivers[2] = pd.melt(alfa_drivers[2], id_vars=['Year'])
alfa_drivers[2] = alfa_drivers[2].dropna()
alfa_drivers[2]['Constructor'] = 'Alfa Romeo'
alfa_drivers[2]= alfa_drivers[2].drop(columns= ['variable'])
alfa_drivers[2] = alfa_drivers[2].rename(columns={"value": "Driver"})
alfa_drivers[2]['constructorId'] = '51'
alfa_drivers[2]
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In [13]:
# Haas
url = 'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haas_F1_Team'
headers = {'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_10_1) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/39.0.2171.95 Safari/537.36'}
r = requests.get(url, headers=headers)
# importing the ability to use beautiful soup
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup
soup = BeautifulSoup( r.content )
haas_drivers = []
for t in soup.findAll("table"):
df_t = pd.read_html(str(t))
haas_drivers.append(df_t[0])
haas_drivers[1] = haas_drivers[1][['Year', 'Drivers']]
haas_drivers[1] = haas_drivers[1].dropna()
haas_drivers[1].drop([22], axis =0, inplace =True)
haas_drivers[1]['Constructor'] = 'Haas F1 Team'
haas_drivers[1]['constructorId'] = '210'
haas_drivers[1] = haas_drivers[1].rename(columns={"Drivers": "Driver"})
haas_drivers[1]
Out[13]:
In [14]:
# Williams Racing
url = 'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Williams_Grand_Prix_results'
headers = {'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_10_1) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/39.0.2171.95 Safari/537.36'}
r = requests.get(url, headers=headers)
# importing the ability to use beautiful soup
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup
soup = BeautifulSoup( r.content )
williams_drivers = []
for t in soup.findAll("table"):
df_t = pd.read_html(str(t))
williams_drivers.append(df_t[0])
williams_drivers = pd.concat([williams_drivers[4], williams_drivers[5]], ignore_index=True)
williams_drivers = williams_drivers[['Year', 'Drivers']]
williams_drivers = williams_drivers.dropna()
williams_drivers.drop([31], axis =0, inplace =True)
williams_drivers.drop([43], axis =0, inplace =True)
# Adding constructor name
williams_drivers['Constructor'] = 'Williams'
williams_drivers = williams_drivers.rename(columns={"Drivers": "Driver"})
williams_drivers['constructorId'] = '3'
williams_drivers
Out[14]:
In [15]:
# COMBINING EACH OF THE DATAFRAMES FROM THE WEB SCRAPING INTO A LARGE DATAFRAME
current_drivers = pd.concat([haas_drivers[1], alfa_drivers[2],aston_drivers[3], alpha_drivers[1], alpine_drivers[1]
, mercedes_drivers[5], red_bull_drivers[3], mclaren_drivers, williams_drivers, ferrari_drivers], ignore_index=True)
current_drivers
# THIS DATAFRAME SHOWS THAT THE DRIVERS, THEIR TEAMS, AND THE YEAR FOR THE TEN CURRENT F1 TEAMS
Out[15]:
EXTRACTION, TRANSFORMATION & LOADING¶
Cleaning the lap_times dataframe & displaying dtypes for incorporation into the regression model later in this project
In [16]:
# RENAMING COLUMNS TO BE UNDERSTANDABLE
lap_times = lap_times.rename(columns={"time": "lap_time", "milliseconds": "lap_in_milli", "position" : "position_after_lap"})
# WE WILL ONLY BE USING MILLISECONDS, DROPPING LAP TIME IN MINUTES AND SECONDS
lap_times = lap_times.drop(columns=['lap_time'])
lap_times
Out[16]:
In [17]:
# ALL OF THE VARIABLES IN LAP_TIMES SHOULD BE QUANTITATIVE. IDS, POSITIONS, AND TIMES SHOULD BE INTEGERS THAT WE CAN DO CALCULATIONS WITH
lap_times.dtypes
Out[17]:
In [18]:
# RENAMING COLUMNS TO BE UNDERSTANDABLE
pit_stops = pit_stops.rename(columns={"time" : "time_when_stopped", "milliseconds": "stop_in_milli", "stop" : "stop_#"})
# WE WILL ONLY BE USING MILLISECONDS, DROPPING LAP TIME IN MINUTES AND SECONDS
pit_stops = pit_stops.drop(columns=['duration'])
pit_stops
Out[18]:
In [19]:
# ALL OF THE VARIABLES IN PIT_STOPS SHOULD BE QUANTITATIVE. IDS, STOP NUMBERS, AND TIMES SHOULD BE INTEGERS THAT WE CAN DO CALCULATIONS WITH
pit_stops.dtypes
Out[19]:
How do qualifying rounds work in Formula One?
There are three qualifying rounds for each race weekend in Formula One. These rounds take place typically over two days prior to the race on Sunday. In the first round, all twenty Formula One drivers participate. The driver's race one lap individually and attempt to recieve the fastest time. Those in the top fifteen will move on to the second round of qualifiers. Those with the bottom five times, will start race day in the last five positions on the grid. In the second round of qualifiers, drivers drive one lap, once again aiming for the faastest time. Those with the fastest ten times will move on to the third round of qualifiers. Those who had the bottom five race times in Q2 will be placed in spots 10-15 on the grid for Sunday's race. The final qualifying round determines the order of the drivers who will be in positions 1-10 on race day.
How should this information shape our data?
Since not all drivers will participate in all three rounds of qualifying, I am going to create dummy variables that will indicate (based on their success in qualifiers) whether a driver will race in the top ten, middle five, or bottom five.
In [20]:
# CLEANING THE QUALIFYING DATASET, DROPPING UNNEEDED VARIABLES
qualifying = qualifying.drop(columns = ["number"])
# REPLACING NAN WITH 0, THIS MEANS THAT THEY DID NOT RACE IN THAT ROUND, NOTE EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE A TIME FOR Q1 BUT NOT EVERYONE WILL MAKE IT TO Q3
qualifying = qualifying.replace('\\N','0')
# DUMMY TO INDICATE THAT THEY WERE PLACED IN TOP TEN STARTING POSITIONS (1-10)
qualifying['top_ten'] = np.where(qualifying['q3'] != '0' , 1, 0)
# DUMMY TO INDICATE THAT THEY WERE IN THE MIDDLE FIVE STARTING POSITIONS (11-15)
qualifying['middle'] = np.where((qualifying['q3'] == '0') & (qualifying['q2'] >'0'), 1, 0)
# DUMMY TO INDICARE THAT THEY WERE IN THE BOTTOM FIVE STARTING POSITIONS (16-20)
qualifying['bottom_five'] = np.where((qualifying['q3']=='0') & (qualifying['q2']=='0'), 1, 0)
# RENAMING THE COLUMN SO WE KNOW WHERE THEY STARTED
qualifying = qualifying.rename(columns= {"position" : "starting_position"})
# MERGING IN INFOMATION ABOUT WHAT RACE
qualifying = qualifying.merge(races, how='left', on="raceId")
qualifying = qualifying[['qualifyId', 'raceId', 'driverId','constructorId', 'starting_position', 'top_ten', 'middle', 'bottom_five', 'circuitId', 'year', 'name']]
qualifying
Out[20]:
In [21]:
qualifying.dtypes
# ALL OF THE VARIABLES IN THE QUALIFYING DATAFRAME SHOULD BE INTEGERS AS THEY EITHER REPRESENT IDS, POSITIONS, OR DUMMY VARIABLES.
# THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS THE NAME OF THE CIRCUIT
Out[21]:
In [22]:
# DROPING COLUMNS I DON'T NEED FROM THE ORIGINAL RESULTS COLUMN
results2 = results.drop(columns=['resultId', 'number', 'positionText','positionOrder', 'time'])
# RENAMING THE COLUMNS FOR UNDERSTANDABILITY
results2 = results2.rename(columns= {"grid" : "starting_position", "position":"finishing_position", "rank" : "overall_standing", "milliseconds":"time_milliseconds"})
# FILLING IN LAP TIMES THAT HAD NO DATA (INDICATING THAT THE DRIVER DID NOT RACE OR DID NOT FINISH THE RACE, WITH ZEROS)
results2 = results2.replace('\\N','0')
# CHANGING THE DTYPES TO BE QUANTITATIVE IF A NUMBER AND A INTERGER IF IT REPRESENTS A CATEGORY
results2['time_milliseconds'] = results2['time_milliseconds'].astype(int)
results2['finishing_position'] = results2['finishing_position'].astype(int)
results2['overall_standing'] = results2['overall_standing'].astype(int)
results2['statusId'] = results2['statusId'].astype(str)
results2['fastestLap'] = results2['fastestLap'].astype(int)
results2['fastestLapSpeed'] = results2['fastestLapSpeed'].astype(float)
# ADDING A DUMMY TO INDICATE THAT THE DRIVER FINISHED THE RACE
results2['finished'] = np.where(results2['statusId']=='1', 1,0)
# ADDING DUMMIES THAT INDICATE WHERE THE DRIVER PLACED
results2['podium'] = np.where(results2['finishing_position']<=3, 1,0)
results2['top_ten'] = np.where((results2['finishing_position']>3) & (results2['finishing_position']<=10), 1,0)
results2['bottom_ten'] = np.where(results2['finishing_position']>10, 1,0)
results2 = results2.drop(columns=['fastestLapTime'])
results2
Out[22]:
In [23]:
results2.dtypes
# ALL OF THE VARIABLES IN THE REFINED RESULTS DATAFRAME SHOULD BE NUMERICAL AS THEY REPRESENT TIMES, IDS, AND DUMMY VARIABLES
# WE ARE KEEPING STATUSID AS AN OBJECT BECUASE THE NUMBERS REFER TO SPECIFIC CATEGORIES REGARDING HOW A DRIVER FINISHED OR WHAT MAY HAVE CAUSED THEM TO NOT COMPLETE A RACE
Out[23]:
- Concat web scrapes & limit drivers: The first step towards my regression model is limiting the data to only include information on drivers who have raced for the 10 current Formula one teams. As mentioned in the data section, I scraped the Wikipedia pages of each team for this information. Now, I am going to create a list of unique drivers that will act as a foreign key to any dataframe I use going for
In [24]:
# LET'S CREATE A LIST OF THE DRIVERS WHO HAVE DRIVEN FOR THE 10 CURRENT TEAMS
names_of_drivers = current_drivers['Driver'].unique()
names_of_drivers = pd.DataFrame(data = names_of_drivers, columns = ['Driver'])
# THERE WERE A HANDFUL OF SPELLING MISTAKES IN DRIVER NAME BETWEEN THE SCRAPES AND KAGGLE
# I HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED THESE SO THAT MERGING WOULD BE DONE EASILY
names_of_drivers = names_of_drivers.replace("Nikita Mazepin[c]", "Nikita Mazepin")
names_of_drivers = names_of_drivers.replace("Carlos Sainz Jr.", "Carlos Sainz")
names_of_drivers = names_of_drivers.replace("Zhou Guanyu", "Guanyu Zhou")
names_of_drivers = names_of_drivers.replace("Alex Albon", "Alexander Albon")
# NOW LETS MERGE IN THE DRIVER IDS
# FIRST I HAVE TO CREATE A DATAFRAME THE CONTAINS THE NAME OF THE DRIVERS AND THEIR FULL NAMES USING THE KAGGLE DATASETS
# THEN I WILL USE THIS DATAFRAME AND MERGE IT WITH OUR UNIQUE NAMES TO CREATE A FOREIGN KEY
drivers_names = pd.DataFrame(data=drivers[['driverId', 'forename', 'surname']])
drivers_names['Driver'] = drivers_names['forename'] + ' ' + drivers_names['surname']
drivers_names = drivers_names[['driverId', 'Driver']]
names_of_drivers = names_of_drivers.merge(drivers_names, how='left')
names_of_drivers =names_of_drivers.dropna()
names_of_drivers.head()
# THERE ARE 46 UNIQUE DRIVERS WHO HAVE DRIVEN OR ARE CURRENTLY DRIVING FOR THE 10 CURRENT F1 TEAMS
Out[24]:
- Build input dataframe for regression: With the unique list of drivers, we can now begin to modify the results data frame to contain information that will be needed for our model. I will merge in information about individual lap times, pitstops, lap speeds, and race level information on starting and finishing position.
In [25]:
# Downselecting the results dataframe for recent drivers only
results_recent = results2[['driverId', 'raceId', 'starting_position', 'constructorId', 'finishing_position','fastestLapSpeed']]
# merge in circuit name based on raceID
results_recent = results_recent.merge(races, how='right')
results_recent = results_recent[['driverId', 'raceId', 'circuitId', 'name', 'year', 'constructorId','starting_position', 'finishing_position','fastestLapSpeed' ]]
results_recent = results_recent.dropna()
# I only want information for the list of 41 recent drivers
results_recent = results_recent.merge(names_of_drivers, how='right')
# I now want information on their lap times in milliseconds
results_recent = results_recent.merge(lap_times, how='left')
# Adding constructor Name
results_recent= results_recent.merge(constructors[['constructorId', 'constructorRef']], how = 'left', on = 'constructorId')
# limiting to 2010 onward
results_recent = results_recent.loc[results_recent['year'] >=2010]
# ADDING PITSTOP INFORMATION
results_recent = results_recent.merge(pit_stops, how='left', on = ['driverId', 'lap', 'raceId'])
results_recent = results_recent.drop(columns=['position_after_lap', 'stop_#', 'time_when_stopped'])
results_recent
Out[25]:
- I will now modify the results dataframe heavily to only contain year to year averages. This was done by merging multiple different kaggle datasets, performing aggregations on specific columns, and deleting unneccesary variables. After duplicates were removed, we were left with year-to-year averages for each of our recents drivers since 2010
In [26]:
results_recent= results_recent[['Driver', 'driverId', 'year', 'constructorRef','raceId', 'circuitId', 'name', 'lap', 'lap_in_milli', 'stop_in_milli', 'fastestLapSpeed', 'starting_position', 'finishing_position']]
#ADDING A COLUMN THAT REPRESENTS THE AVERAGE LAP SPEED FOR A GIVEN YEAR
avg_lap = results_recent.groupby(['year', 'Driver'], as_index=False)[['lap_in_milli']].mean()
avg_lap = avg_lap.rename(columns= {"lap_in_milli" : "avg_lap"})
# MERGING BACK INTO RESULTS RECENT
results_recent= results_recent.merge(avg_lap[['year', 'Driver', 'avg_lap']], how = 'left', on = ['year', 'Driver'] )
# ADDING A COLUMN THAT REPRESENT THE AVERAGE PIT STOP FOR A GIVEN YEAR
avg_pit = results_recent.groupby(['year', 'Driver'], as_index=False)[['stop_in_milli']].mean()
avg_pit = avg_pit.rename(columns= {"stop_in_milli" : "avg_pit"})
avg_pit
# MERGING BACK INTO RESULTS
results_recent= results_recent.merge(avg_pit[['year', 'Driver', 'avg_pit']], how = 'left', on = ['year', 'Driver'] )
# ADDING IN INFORMATION ON AVG FASTEST LAP SPEED
avg_fastest_speed = results_recent.groupby(['year', 'Driver'], as_index=False)[['fastestLapSpeed']].mean()
avg_fastest_speed = avg_fastest_speed.rename(columns= {"fastestLapSpeed" : "avg_fastest_speed"})
results_recent= results_recent.merge(avg_fastest_speed[['year', 'Driver', 'avg_fastest_speed']], how = 'left', on = ['year', 'Driver'] )
# DROPPING THE INDIV LAP SPEEDS AND PITS
results_recent = results_recent.drop(columns=['lap_in_milli', 'stop_in_milli', 'fastestLapSpeed'])
# ADDING IN INFORMATION ON AVERAGE STARTING POSITION
avg_start = results_recent.groupby(['year', 'Driver'], as_index=False)[['starting_position']].mean()
avg_start = avg_start.rename(columns= {"starting_position" : "avg_start"})
results_recent= results_recent.merge(avg_start[['year', 'Driver', 'avg_start']], how = 'left', on = ['year', 'Driver'] )
# ADDING IN INFORMATION ON AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION
avg_finish = results_recent.groupby(['year', 'Driver'], as_index=False)[['finishing_position']].mean()
avg_finish = avg_finish.rename(columns= {"finishing_position" : "avg_finish"})
results_recent= results_recent.merge(avg_finish[['year', 'Driver', 'avg_finish']], how = 'left', on = ['year', 'Driver'] )
# DROPPING INFORMATION ABOUT STARTING AND FINISHING POSTIOIN FOR EACH RACE
results_recent = results_recent.drop(columns=['starting_position', 'finishing_position'])
# WORKING TOWARDS THE NUMBER OF WINS PER SEASON
driver_standings=driver_standings.merge(results_recent[['driverId', 'Driver', 'raceId']], on = ['raceId', 'driverId'] )
results_recent= results_recent.merge(driver_standings[['raceId', 'driverId', 'wins']], how = 'left', on = ['raceId', 'driverId'] )
max_wins =results_recent.groupby(['year', 'Driver'], as_index=False)[['wins']].max()
max_wins = max_wins.rename(columns= {"wins" : "max_wins"})
results_recent= results_recent.merge(max_wins[['year', 'Driver', 'max_wins']], how = 'left', on = ['year', 'Driver'] )
results_recent = results_recent.drop(columns=['wins'])
results_recent = results_recent.drop(columns=['raceId', 'circuitId', 'name', 'lap'])
# I AM DELETING DUPLICATES BECAUSE I WANT YEAR AVERAGES NOT RACE BY RACE DATA
results_recent= results_recent.drop_duplicates(keep='first')
results_recent
Out[26]:
In [27]:
# ADDING INFO ON THE CONSTRUCTOR STANDINGS
# I WILL USE MAX POINTS FOR A SEASON (THE POINTS THAT A CONSTRUCTOR HAD AT THE END OF THE SEASON) AS A PROXY FOR CONSTRUCTOR STANDINGS
results_recent= results_recent.merge(constructors[['constructorId', 'constructorRef']], how = 'left', on = ['constructorRef'] )
results_recent= results_recent.merge(constructor_standings[['points', 'constructorId']], how = 'left', on = ['constructorId'] )
points_szn = results_recent.groupby(['year', 'constructorId'], as_index=False)[['points']].max()
points_szn = points_szn.rename(columns= {"points" : "points_szn"})
results_recent= results_recent.merge(points_szn[['year', 'constructorId', 'points_szn']], how = 'left', on = ['year', 'constructorId'])
results_recent = results_recent.drop(columns=['points'])
results_recent= results_recent.drop_duplicates(keep='first')
results_recent
Out[27]:
For reference throughout the analysis, I have created a table that shows which team our recent drivers have raced for since 2010. If there is a NaN in this table, it represents that the driver was not driving this year
In [28]:
# I want to create a graph that will show which drivers have switched teams within this dataset
# Creating a pivot table containing information on year, driver, and the team they were racing for
results_pivot = results_recent.pivot_table(
index="Driver", columns =['year'],
values = "constructorRef", aggfunc=np.max
)
results_pivot
Out[28]:
- Based on the table above, I picked four drivers and have decided to do a regression discontinuity analysis on five important success metrics: average lap time, average pitstop time, average fastest lap speed, average starting position, and average finishing position. These averages are in relation to the year as a whole. I choose the seven drivers based on their noterity, the amount of data they had and whether they switched teams at least once in their career. In the end, I choose Max Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton, Sebastian Vettel, and Daniel Ricciardo
First I will create a graph that shows how these four drivers switched teams over the year. This graph is purely for visuals.
In [29]:
results_seven = results_recent.loc[(results_recent['Driver']=="Daniel Ricciardo") | (results_recent['Driver']== "Lewis Hamilton" )| (results_recent['Driver']== "Max Verstappen") | (results_recent['Driver']== "Sebastian Vettel")]
In [30]:
# Now we are going to create a line plot that shows how these drivers moved over the years
# To limit how crezy the graph is, I am limiting my regression discontinuity to four of the drivers. The drivers had more data and at least one team switch
plt.figure(figsize=(40,20))
sns.lineplot(data=results_seven, x="year", y="constructorRef", hue="Driver", style = "Driver", markers = True, estimator=None,linewidth=10).set(title='The Four Drivers and their team history since 2010')
plt.legend(loc='center left', bbox_to_anchor=(1, 0.5), prop={'size': 25})
Out[30]:
- Prove Regression Discontinuity for Constructors: I will now analyze these four drivers and see how their averages were affected pre and post switches
In 2015 Max Verstappen was racing for Torro Rosso, who was ranked 7th overall. In 2016, he switched teams and raced for RedBull, who was ranked 4th in 2015. We want to see if Max's average lap time, average pitstop time, fastest Lap speed and other season indicators were affected by switching to a 'better' team.
In [ ]:
max_verstappen = results_recent.loc[(results_recent['Driver'] == 'Max Verstappen')]
max_verstappen
Out[ ]:
In [ ]:
plt.figure(figsize=(20,20))
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,1)
ax.axvline(x = 2016, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
max_verstappen.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_lap", ax=ax)
plt.title("Max Verstappen Yearly Averages (centered at 2016)")
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,2, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2016, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
max_verstappen.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_pit", ax=ax)
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,3, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2016, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
max_verstappen.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_fastest_speed", ax=ax)
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,4, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2016, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
max_verstappen.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_start", ax=ax)
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,5, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2016, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
max_verstappen.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_finish", ax=ax);
In 2014 Sebastian Vettel was racing for Red Bull, who was ranked 2nd overall. In 2015, he switched teams and raced for Ferrari, who was ranked 4th in 2014. We want to see if Sebastian's average lap time, average pitstop time and fastest Lap speed was affected by switching to a 'lesser' team.
Additionally, in 2020 Sebastian was racing for Ferrari, who was ranked 6th overall. In 2021, he switched teams and raced for Aston Martin, who would be new to the grid in 2021. We want to see how this new team affected hisaverage lap time, average pitstop time and fastest Lap speed.
In [ ]:
seb_vettel = results_recent.loc[(results_recent['Driver'] == 'Sebastian Vettel')]
seb_vettel
Out[ ]:
In [ ]:
plt.figure(figsize=(20,20))
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,1)
ax.axvline(x = 2015, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
ax.axvline(x = 2021, color = 'red', linestyle='-.')
seb_vettel.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_lap", ax=ax)
plt.title("Sebastian Vettel's Yearly Averages (centered at 2015 & 2021)")
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,2, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2015, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
ax.axvline(x = 2021, color = 'red', linestyle='-.')
seb_vettel.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_pit", ax=ax)
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,3, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2015, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
ax.axvline(x = 2021, color = 'red', linestyle='-.')
seb_vettel.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_fastest_speed", ax=ax)
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,4, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2015, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
ax.axvline(x = 2021, color = 'red', linestyle='-.')
seb_vettel.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_start", ax=ax)
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,5, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2015, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
ax.axvline(x = 2021, color = 'red', linestyle='-.')
seb_vettel.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_finish", ax=ax);
When Sebastian switched from RedBull (2) to Ferrari (4), his average lap time, average pitstop time decreased and his fastest lap speed remained unaffected. When Sebastian switched from Ferrari (6) to Aston Martin (unranked) his average lap time, average pitstop time, and average fastest lap speed decreased.
In 2012 Lewis Hamilton was racing for McLaren, who was ranked 3rd overall. In 2013, he switched teams and raced for Mercedes, who was ranked 5th in 2012. We want to see if Lewis's average lap time, average pitstop time and fastest Lap speed was affected by switching to a 'lesser' team.
In [ ]:
hamilton = results_recent.loc[(results_recent['Driver'] == 'Lewis Hamilton')]
hamilton
Out[ ]:
In [ ]:
plt.figure(figsize=(20,20))
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,1)
ax.axvline(x = 2013, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
hamilton.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_lap", ax=ax)
plt.title("Lewis Hamilton Yearly Averages (centered at 2013)")
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,2, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2013, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
hamilton.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_pit", ax=ax)
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,3, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2013, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
hamilton.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_fastest_speed", ax=ax)
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,4, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2013, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
hamilton.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_start", ax=ax)
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,5, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2013, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
hamilton.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_finish", ax=ax);
Daniel Ricciardo has has spent his relatively short Formula One career split between five teams: HRT, Torro Rosso, RedBull, Renault, and McLaren. For simplicity, I will only analyze the largest jumps of his career: RedBull to Renault. After driving for RedBull for five years, Ricciardo switched in 2019 from a team ranked 3rd to Renauly who was ranked 5th. Although this may not seem like a large jump, the top three teams in Formula One consistently score the best and the remaining seven tend to fall to the wayside. It is uncommon to see a driver in their prime voluntarily switch to a lower team and thus I want to see how Ricciardo's average lap time, average pitstop, and fastest lap times were affected.
In [ ]:
ricciardo = results_recent.loc[(results_recent['Driver'] == 'Daniel Ricciardo') & ((results_recent['year']>=2014) & (results_recent['year']<=2020))]
ricciardo
Out[ ]:
In [ ]:
plt.figure(figsize=(20,20))
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,1)
ax.axvline(x = 2019, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
ricciardo.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_lap", ax=ax)
plt.title("Daniel Ricciardo's Yearly Averages (centered at 2019)")
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,2, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2019, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
ricciardo.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_pit", ax=ax)
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,3, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2019, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
ricciardo.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_fastest_speed", ax=ax)
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,4, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2019, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
ricciardo.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_start", ax=ax)
ax = plt.subplot(5,1,5, sharex=ax)
ax.axvline(x = 2019, color = 'green', linestyle='-.')
ricciardo.plot.scatter(x="year", y="avg_finish", ax=ax);
Regression Discontinuity Analysis Conclusions¶
For the most part, the drivers and their switches followed our expectations. When Max Verstappen switched to a 'better' team, his success indicators were immediately affected positively and he continued to have larger positive affect each year. When Daniel Ricciardo switched to a 'worse; team, his success indicators were negatvily affected in the ensuring season.
There were certain anomolies in Lewis Hamilton's switch from McLaren to Mercedes. Although Mercedes was a lower ranking team in the previous season, Lewis's switch had positive affects on his success indicators.
Additionally, Sebestian Vettel's first switch from RedBull to Ferrari did not follow expectations, but his second switch from Ferrari to Aston Martin did follow expectations.
What we can see from this is that constructors do play a role in success, however Formula One is a highly volitile sport and teams can change drastically year to year, espicially ones with a strong historical footprint like Mercedes or Ferrari.
Going forward, I will still incorporate constructor success into my model but I will not rely on it solely.
In [ ]:
results_recent['prev_szn(avg_lap)'] = results_recent['avg_lap'].shift(1)
results_recent['prev_szn(avg_pit)'] = results_recent['avg_pit'].shift(1)
results_recent['prev_szn(avg_fastest_speed)'] = results_recent['avg_fastest_speed'].shift(1)
results_recent['prev_szn(avg_start)'] = results_recent['avg_start'].shift(1)
results_recent['prev_szn(avg_finish)'] = results_recent['avg_finish'].shift(1)
results_recent['prev_szn(constructor)'] = results_recent['constructorRef'].shift(1)
results_recent['prev_szn(points_szn)'] = results_recent['points_szn'].shift(1)
# WE NEED TO GET DUMMIES FOR EACH OF THE INSTRUCTORS
results_recent.dropna(inplace=True)
results_recent
Out[ ]:
In [ ]:
# PICKING THE FEATURES I WANT TO USE IN MY MODEL
features = ["constructorRef", "prev_szn(avg_lap)",
"prev_szn(avg_pit)",
"prev_szn(avg_fastest_speed)", "prev_szn(avg_start)",
"prev_szn(avg_finish)", "prev_szn(constructor)", "driverId", "prev_szn(points_szn)"]
# CHANGING ANY CATEGORICAL VARIABLE INTO A DUMMY
X_dict = results_recent[features].to_dict(orient="records")
# SPECIFYING WHAT MY OUTCOME VARIABLE WILL BE
y = results_recent["avg_finish"]
# SINCE WE WILL BE USING CROSS VALIDATION, MUST SPECIFY THE PIPELINE
vec = DictVectorizer(sparse=False)
scaler = StandardScaler()
model = KNeighborsRegressor(n_neighbors=5)
pipeline = Pipeline([("vectorizer", vec), ("scaler", scaler), ("fit", model)])
In [ ]:
# ESTABLISH THE FORMULA WE WILL USE FOR FIVE FOLD CROSS VALIDATION
def get_cv_error(k):
model = KNeighborsRegressor(n_neighbors=k)
pipeline = Pipeline([("vectorizer", vec), ("scaler", scaler), ("fit", model)])
mse = np.mean(-cross_val_score(
pipeline, X_dict, y,
cv=5, scoring="neg_mean_squared_error"
))
return mse
ks = pd.Series(range(1, 51))
ks.index = range(1, 51)
test_errs = ks.apply(get_cv_error)
test_errs.plot.line()
test_errs.sort_values()
# OUR MODEL ERROR IS MINIMIZED AT A K = 22
Out[ ]:
Initially, I thought it would be wise to optimize the KNN using cross fold validation because I wanted to minimize the error in the model, however, I realized with a small sample of drivers and construcotrs, the larger K got, the more similar all of the predicted finishing positions got. I've included this in the project, but wanted to first explain why I would not be using the predicted K going forward
For the training set, I used lagged success indicators for each of the drivers. I also limited the training set to not include 2022, as this would be what I tested my predictions on.
In [ ]:
# ESTABLISHING X TRAIN, Y TRAIN, AND X TEST
features = ["constructorRef", "prev_szn(avg_lap)",
"prev_szn(avg_pit)",
"prev_szn(avg_fastest_speed)", "prev_szn(avg_start)",
"prev_szn(avg_finish)", "prev_szn(constructor)", "year", "driverId", "prev_szn(points_szn)"]
X_train = pd.get_dummies(results_recent[features])
# I AM INCLUDING 2022 BUT ONLY USING LAGS IN MY MODEL SO THAT THE RACERS IN 2022 CAN STILL PULL THEIR LAG FROM 2021
X_train = X_train.loc[X_train['year']<2022]
y_train = results_recent[["avg_finish", "year"]]
y_train = y_train.loc[y_train['year']<2022]
y_train = y_train.drop(columns=['year'])
X_test = pd.get_dummies(results_recent[features])
X_test = X_test.loc[X_test['year'] ==2022]
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from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsRegressor
KNN_model = KNeighborsRegressor(n_neighbors=2).fit(X_train,y_train)
X_test['predicted_avg_finish'] = KNN_model.predict(X_test)
predictions = X_test[['driverId', 'prev_szn(avg_finish)', 'predicted_avg_finish']]
predictions
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# MERGING IN DRIVER NAME AND ACTUAL FINISH FOR 2022
results_2022 = results_recent.loc[results_recent['year']==2022]
predictions = predictions.merge(results_2022[['Driver', 'driverId', 'year', 'avg_finish']], how="right", on = ['driverId'])
predictions
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We know that George Russel switched from Williams to Mercedes in 2022. We will use his data from 2022 and see what our model predicts his average finishing position to be. Our model predicted that Russell would average a finishing position of 10.32 but he actually finished with average position of 4.205. This could be attributed to his really high average finishing position in the previous season. Another switch was Vatteri Battas who transferred from Mercedes to Alfa. Our model predicted that he would have an average finishing position of 12.01 but he actually finished with an average finish of 9.05.
Final Steps¶
All in all, I have come to the conclusion that it is very difficult to finetune finishing position. Given the fact that there are only 20 racers within a given season, KNN cannot utilize a large K. Additionally, the progress that each teams makes season-to-season, makes it very difficult to make predictions without having specific data on their technology or cars.
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# Converting my CoLab to html so that I can upload this file to Github
%%shell
jupyter nbconvert --to html /content/drive/MyDrive/finaltutorial.ipynb
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